Emma Ruth. With edits from Coordination Hub.
“In my own simple terms, this is how I understand the situation. I am not political and would welcome anyone who is, to educate me on any errors below;
1) GINA’S LEGAL CHALLENGE TO THE GOVERNMENT’S CLAIM THEY CAN TRIGGER A50 ON THEIR OWN:
In January it is likely that the Supreme Court will rule that May cannot trigger A50 without a parliamentary vote. This will delay the process as the government will have to put a bill before parliament to ask ‘permission’ to invoke.
2) MP’S VOTE ON WHETHER TO TRIGGER A50:
However, most MPs are expected to vote in favour, as noted by Labour and Conservatives, but ‘several’ will vote against. The Lib Dems will oppose Brexit unless the government promises a ref on the terms of withdrawal, which may or may not include an option to stay – the harder we make the whole process and the more we delay the more likely this is in my opinion.
3) THE HOUSE OF LORDS VOTES ON THE A50 BILL:
The rebels in the House of Commons are likely to give courage to the House of Lords, who will try to amend the government’s bill. What these amendments may be is, as yet, unknown.
Cohub:- As you know, the House of Lords can’t prevent bills passing into law. They do have the power to send bills from the House of Commons back for further consideration. This delays the bill, of course, though it can’t prevent it passing in the end. If, after the Supreme Court ruling, the House of Commons does vote in favour of a short bill requiring the government to trigger A50 but giving no other details, it will then go to the House of Lords. If that bill doesn’t give the guarantees we need, the House of Lords can send it back to the Commons for further consideration. The House of Lords Soft Power Mission letter-writing group was set up to let the Lords know they have our support to send the bill back. https://www.facebook.com/groups/258952674506858/
4) THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT
Then we have Nicola Sturgeon, who has repeatedly said she has a mandate to oppose invoking A50 by the Scottish people and therefore the Scottish Parliament should also get to vote on the bill too.
Then we have Ireland, who will be arguably the worst affected part of the UK by Brexit as it will literally put a checkpoint across their Country and ‘undermine their peace process gains’ which is part of a legal challenge in the High Court in Belfast where the Good Friday agreement gives them ‘some control over constitutional changes’. Ireland are also preparing to seek, from Brussels, ‘special legal status’ for Ireland to allow an open border between the south and Northern Ireland and the UK should Brexit go ahead.
This is all before A50 is invoked.
6) FURTHER LEGAL CHALLENGES:
There are more legal battles, one is to see if by triggering A50, that automatically takes us out of the EEA or if that is a separate arrangement that would need it’s own Parliamentary approval.
And there’s another legal ruling being sought to see if A50 is reversible.
WHAT WE, THE REMAINERS, CAN DO TO HELP:
So my understanding is, our best strategy is showing our opposition to Brexit and delaying the government at every turn until the consequences become apparent to everyone and a GE is called. We do this by;
7) Writing to our MP’s, writing to the Lords and writing to MEP’s as they also need to know how we feel.
A) Has your company lost customers? B) Has your company had projects postponed or cancelled? C) Has your organisation lost funding? D) Are redundancies being made? E) Have you suffered from a hate crime?
The more they know about the problems their constituents are experiencing, the more confident they will be voting against Article 50 and/or voting against the final Brexit deal.
Cohub: – When talking to MPs asks them to back Conditional Notification (see www.represent-us.uk). Allows MPs to vote for Notification but keeps our options open. They can still vote against – the amendment is separate – but Notification is going to pass and it’s best it only passes as conditional to keep all options open.
8) We can also join our local groups to organise pro-EU stands to gather support for The 48% to strengthen our voice to sign petitions and crowdfund for legal challenges,
9) Stands can also be used to talk with non-voters and bregretters to let them know that leaving the EU will not solve the issues of low wages, lack of affordable housing and the NHS funding crisis, only the government can do those things. But it will make all those situations much worse, especially since the government now want to strip us of our human rights.”
Cohub:- (10) Direct help with by elections (E.g. Copeland https://www.facebook.com/groups/496661907195787 ).
Working in by elections is a separate category, due to the intensity.
(11) Direct talking with Leavers.